The Role of Risk Aversion and Scarcity Messages in Online Accommodation Booking Decisions under an Increasingly Stringent Regulatory Environment
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15170/MM.2026.60.03.07Keywords:
scarcity messages, digital choice architecture, online travel agencies, risk aversion, dark patternsAbstract
THE AIM OF THE PAPER
This study examines the role and underlying mechanisms of scarcity messages in the sales practices of online travel agencies (OTAs), with particular attention to the characteristics of the Hungarian market and the regulatory environment shaped by the Hungarian Competition Authority’s (GVH) proceedings in 2020. The research aims to determine how scarcity cues influence booking intention and to what extent consumers’ risk-averse attitudes influence this relationship.
METHODOLOGY
The investigation is based on the theoretical foundations of bounded rationality, Prospect Theory, and the scarcity effect. Extending established international models, the study incorporates risk aversion as a personality dimension into the explanatory framework of scarcity message effectiveness. A mixed-methods approach was used. The qualitative component, comprising expert interviews and comparative platform analysis, explored post-regulatory changes in communication practices and interface design. The quantitative component involved a non-representative online experiment (n = 247), which tested the impact of four distinct types of scarcity messages in a controlled setting.
MOST IMPORTANT RESULTS
The qualitative findings indicate a more restrained and objective use of scarcity cues following regulatory intervention, and, in some cases, a complete phase-out strategy by certain market actors. According to the regression model (R² = 0.386), booking intention is most strongly predicted by risk aversion (β = 0.747), while the type of stimulus alone does not have a statistically significant effect. The results suggest that the scarcity effect cannot be interpreted as a linear stimulus–response mechanism; rather, it functions as a decision-making shortcut associated with loss-averse attitudes.
RECOMMENDATIONS
Scarcity messages can be applied sustainably in the long term only if they are based on accurate, relevant, and objective information, and if they are visually and structurally aligned with the overall platform design. The regulatory environment plays a decisive role in shaping ethical digital choice architectures that support conversion objectives while preserving consumer trust.
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