Somalia in the Transforming Horn of Africa – Continuities and Changes

Abstract

In recent years, Somalia has experienced both continuity and change. The primary challenge to the country’s stability remains al-Shabaab. Despite the efforts of the Ma’awisley militias and the Somali army during their offensive in 2022-2023, the jihadist group continues to maintain a presence even near Mogadishu. Additionally, the swift rise of the Islamic State in Somalia has raised concerns among external actors.While Mogadishu continues to grapple with the al-Shabaab insurgency and ongoing conflicts between federal member states and the central government, Hargeisa is moving closer than ever to gaining international recognition. These developments are closely linked to the increasing involvement of foreign actors in Somali and regional politics, which not only leads to economic investment and humanitarian assistance but also creates competition and tension. In this context, Somalia appears to be more of a loser than a winner in the new global era in the Horn of Africa, while Somaliland seeks to maximize its advantages with the ultimate aim of achieving international recognition – so far, with limited success.