Ethiopia-Eritrea Relations Post-2018: National Interests, Foreign Policy Divergence, and the Geopolitics of Regional Instability in the Horn of Africa

Abstract

The 2018 rapprochement between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which ostensibly ended an 18-year ‘no war, no peace’ stalemate, was widely celebrated. However, the relationship between the two countries deteriorated with the Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) and Ethiopia’s expressed assertive demands for access to the Red Sea. The article analyses the shifting dynamics of Ethiopia-Eritrea bilateral relations over the past seven years, in the context of the volatile geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. The paper analyses the relationship between Ethiopia and Eritrea by comparing their national interests with their foreign policies. It employs the Regional Security Complex Theory to examine tensions among neighbouring countries, such as Djibouti and Somalia, that have been exacerbated by Ethiopia’s Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Somaliland. The study highlights the strategic interactions between regional and extra-regional powers. It argues that these developments have largely undermined the initial peace dividend, resulting in increased regional instability and a significant risk of renewed conflict. This situation emphasises the urgent need for effective diplomatic engagement and de-escalation efforts.