The Ethio-Sudan borderland in the age of new geopolitics: Protracted disputes and the limits of cooperation

Abstract

This article analyses the historical trajectory and current dynamics of the protracted Ethio-Sudan border conflict over al-Fashaga/Mesk Wuha Triangle. Historically, repeated agreements, including the 1902 Anglo-Ethiopian Agreement, the 1972 Exchange of Notes, and the 2005-2007 joint boundary process, only produced functional coexistence on the ground without legally demarcation. Following the outbreak of the civil war in northern Ethiopia’s Tigray region on November 20, 2020, the Sudanese military announced that it has occupied the contested territory breaking down the functional arrangement and fragility of co-existence in the region. By drawing archival and qualitative materials, the paper argues resolving the border dispute has been complicated due to three national and geopolitical developments. First, the geopolitical competition in the Horn of Africa that draws Gulf countries like the UAE has elevated the political cost of territorial concessions. Second, the complex linkages of border disputes with the Grand Renaissance Dam (GERD) negotiations inviting lower riparian countries transforming the dispute into a regional issue. Third, internal political instabilities such as the conflict in northern Ethiopia, the rise of Amhara nationalism, and strong claims over contested territories have all influenced border negotiations and the peaceful demarcation of borders