China in the Horn of Africa: Connectivity, Security, and the Limits of Regional Integration

Abstract

The Horn of Africa region is a key geopolitical and geoeconomic intersection in the transforming world order of the 21st century. The proximity of the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the Gulf of Aden, and the Suez Canal makes the region strategically significant for global trade, energy security, and great-power competition. At the same time, the region is characterized by persistent political instability, inter-state and internal conflicts, weak institutional capacities, and low levels of regional integration. The study examines the extent to which China’s originally primarily economic and infrastructural presence in the region is shifting into a broader security-development role, and its impact on the region’s development and regional integration. The analysis is based on frameworks of world order transformation, geoeconomics, and regional integration, with particular attention to the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative and the strategic role of infrastructure and connectivity. Ethiopia emerges as a prominent case study: both the Addis Ababa light rail and the Addis Ababa–Djibouti railroad illustrate the transformative potential and limitations of Chinese-funded infrastructure. The study indicates that Chinese projects have significantly improved physical connectivity, yet financial sustainability, debt, maintenance and technology transfer issues, and insufficient regional institutional embedding have limited their developmental and integrative impact. At the same time, China’s growing maritime and security presence – particularly through the Djibouti military-logistics facility, anti-piracy operations, and UN peacekeeping – indicates that the increase in Beijing’s economic interests is gradually creating security obligations as well. The study concludes that China is increasingly emerging as a securitydevelopment actor in the Horn of Africa, but it cannot yet be considered a comprehensive regional security provider. Similarly, Chinese infrastructure has created connectivity, but on its own, it has not fostered deeper regional integration