Does Public Opinion Even Matter in Foreign Affairs?

Low Demand for Vertical Accountability and Foreign Policy in the Philippines under Duterte

Abstract

Concepts like populist foreign policy and populist securitization have emerged as means to analyze the rise of strongmen appealing to the “People”—its supposed will and power—in foreign affairs. They provide insights into the supply side of rhetoric and policies that treat the international arena as an extension of domestic struggles against perceived elites—both local and global; struggles conducted through anti-establishment tendencies, skepticism towards liberal international norms, and dramatic appeals to the “People”. Without dismissing the value of such conceptual-theoretical advances, a supply side analysis appears insufficient in the face of such global political shifts. In other words, if we are dealing with foreign policy processes, or aspects of it that are more exclusive and bureaucratic, then focusing on concerned elites might be sufficient. However, with the “People” being dragged into the picture by their supposed representatives, a demand side analysis appears necessary. In more specific terms, we need to ask, what is the relationship between a foreign policy process and demands for vertical accountability? Such a question takes the matter beyond populist leadership and into the realm of democratization itself. By pursuing it through a secondary data analysis of foreign policy landmarks and public opinion surveys during the administration of Rodrigo Duterte, we will provide an integration of demand and supply side perspectives and explore the possibility of foreign policy being based on or enabled by the powerlessness of ordinary citizens. Its implications on the trajectory of democratization within and across countries will then be opened for future analyses.